Consumer growth prospects falls in the aftermath of SARS

While the consequences of the war in Iraq dominated Asian consumer sentiment in March, reinforces this month's Asia Consumer growth prospects index (april 2003) that SARS has emerged as an even greater threat to consumer spending in Asia for the next 12 months. For the first time since the start of the index, China has suffered two major "downgrading" in a row.

Index for Asian Consumer growth prospects is a monthly index and brief analysis of the prospects for the Asian consumer growth over the next 12 months based on relevant secondary economic indexes as well as the views of a panel of consumer trend watchers in Asia. it has run now for over 12 months.

Almost all the 12 Asian economies interviewees saw a decline in the index, with Singapore and Hong Kong the most effected. Decline was not unexpected, with the Government figures in both countries, predicting a major impact on economic growth for the next 12 months.Even in countries not directly affected by SARS currently such as Thailand and Malaysia feel greater impact through a dramatic decline in the past relatively bouyant regional tourism sector which countries impose travel ban and screening for tourists from affected countries.

Today downgraded both ING and Merrill Lynch both Hong Kong in the aftermath of SARS developments as new cases are reported, and there are no signs yet that the outbreak has peaked in the SAR and the PRC. the latter also downgraded the worldwide aviation segment.

Released april 14, 2003, 05: 48 PM in Asia

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The prospect of war affect Asian consumer demand growth for the next 12 months

War of the minds of many consumers in Asia, possibly causing many to delay the buyer due to increased unknowns from an expected war in Iraq. Both foreign and domestic investments have also in most Asian stock markets slowed this month.

Our Asian Consumer prospects Index indicates this month a lowering of the consumers ' demand growth prospects across the Board, despite most countries is fairly geographically isolated from any conflict arenas.

The lack of any evidence of a revival of European and North American economies also pulled down the prospects of consumer demand growth in export-oriented economies in Asia.

[Excerpt]The dominant factors that impact the index this month been increasing probability of military conflict in Iraq, and secondary tension comes from North Korea. This has had an overall effect of damping the Outlook for consumer growth in almost all countries, but especially to those closer to the expected arenas conflict or those with larger shares of Muslim citizens. a secondary factor is the continuous bad economic news from Europe and THE UNITED STATES, which affects the Nations with a degree of dependence on exports to the West.[End of extraction]

Released March 09, 2003, 02: 25 PM in Asia

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The prospect of war affect Asian consumer demand growth for the next 12 months

War of the minds of many consumers in Asia, possibly causing many to delay the buyer due to increased unknowns from an expected war in Iraq. Both foreign and domestic investments have also in most Asian stock markets slowed this month.
Our Asian Consumer prospects Index indicates this month a lowering of the consumers ' demand growth prospects across the Board, despite most countries is fairly geographically isolated from any conflict arenas.
The lack of any evidence of a revival of European and North American economies also pulled down the prospects of consumer demand growth in export-oriented economies in Asia.
[Excerpt]The dominant factors that impact the index this month been increasing probability of military conflict in Iraq, and secondary tension comes from North Korea. This has had an overall effect of damping the Outlook for consumer growth in almost all countries, but especially to those closer to the expected arenas conflict or those with larger shares of Muslim citizens. a secondary factor is the continuous bad economic news from Europe and THE UNITED STATES, which affects the Nations with a degree of dependence on exports to the West.[End of extraction]


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